卑诗省内部区域光纤供应预测

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甲虫后的生活：分析和预测BC木材的可用性和木材产品生产至2028

A proprietary modeling of BC timber fibre availability by region and year (to 2028) under several key assumptions.

由于剩余的山松甲虫的侵扰，云杉树皮甲虫的侵扰，毁灭性的森林火灾以及旨在保护山驯鹿山的木材收获土地基地，木材收成减少了和AAC。

BC木材和面板生产的建模。

按年份和地区，可能会在卑诗省的剩余纤维（纸浆，MDF，颗粒板，生物能和木材颗粒）的可能供应。

背景

这mountain pine beetle has devastated lodgepole pine forests in the province of British Columbia. While many of the impacts have already been felt in the industry, harvest levels continue to fall, and 27 mills have closed since 2006. Further timber harvest reductions and mill closures most definitely lie ahead, not just from the remaining impact of the mountain pine beetle, but also as a result of a new spruce bark beetle infestation, losses from two years of devasting forest fires, and recent moves to reduce harvests in order to protect the endangered mountain caribou.

这BC内部（区域）纤维供应预测（甲虫后的寿命）报告是前两个具有里程碑意义报告的后续行动：BC山松甲虫：不断发展的影响与机会（2012年）and卑诗省内部：山松甲虫攻击（2010年）。

2019年的报告再次深入研究了将继续挑战卑诗省森林和整个省级产业的动态。不仅锯木厂将要关闭，而且还会关闭旋转厂。也有可能关闭纸浆磨坊，木材颗粒植物和热电联产植物。

该及时的报告将解决影响卑诗省未来的关键含义，例如

  • 在不列颠哥伦比亚省的何处，在可用的纤维供应和植物能力之间会看到最大的差距？
  • How has the BC Interior industry reacted to the effects of the beetle so far, and what is yet to come in terms of both mill closures and shift reductions?
  • 为什么甲虫对卑诗省森林行业的影响可能并不是该省麻烦的终结？

这proprietary BC Fibre Model, now owned by Industrial Forestry Service Ltd. of Prince George, provides the most accurate assessment of how the British Columbia industry has reacted up to this point, and what things will look like through 2028.

和项目团队带来互补的技能range of perspectives to the factors and issues that have the greatest potential to impact the forest industry of the BC Interior. As in our previous reports, the unique item to note about this study is the dozens of input variables (forests, mills, recoveries, etc.) that come together in a comprehensive forecast using the BC Fibre Model.

这model generates a detailed outlook for the Interior’s sawlog, chip and residual fibre availability at a strategic level over a planning horizon of one decade. In combination with assessments of how the resulting lumber, panel and pulp production may be affected, the final analysis clearly demonstrates why the BC industry may become a smaller regional force in global forest products markets in the years to come.

目录

  • 执行摘要
    1. 介绍
    2. BC Interior Forest Industry — Sector Overview
    3. Analysis Methodology
    4. 纤维可用性预测和BC纤维型号
      1. 4.1 Forecast Sensitivity — Limitations of Modeled Predictions
      2. 4.2 Assumptions
    5. BC内部基础案例预测
      1. Mill Closure History
      2. 期待
      3. 山后松甲虫碱基盒AAC预测
    6. 等待AAC减少影响
      1. 火
      2. 云杉甲虫
      3. 山驯鹿
    7. 2019年BC内部光纤供应预测至2028年
      1. AAC和SAWLOG的可用性
      2. 残留的木屑可用性
      3. 木屑和剃须
      4. Hog Fuel Availability
      5. 木材生产预测
      6. Panel Production Forecast
    8. 2019 Fiber供应摘要观点
  • Appendix 1
    General analytical procedures and assumptions
  • Appendix 2

    卑诗省地区至2028年的光纤供应预测：

    • 东库特尼
    • West Kootenays
    • Kamloops/Okanagan
    • 加州
    • Prince George
    • 麦肯齐
    • Peace
    • 东鲁珀特王子
    • 西王子鲁珀特

    Each region is broken out as follows:

    • 背景信息
    • 现有行业
    • Log supply threats
    • AAC和SAWLOG的可用性预测
    • 锯木厂的运营率预测
    • Residual wood chip availability forecast
    • 木屑和剃须的可用性预测
    • 猪燃料可用性预测
    • 收获后路边残留光纤预测
    • Lumber production forecast
    • 面板生产预测
    • 区域摘要观点